Mathematical model offers new strategies to prevent urban burglary
As with most crime, the highest rates of burglary occur in urban communities since large metropolitan areas generally boast more concentrated wealth. Existing mathematical models typically examine burglaries in residential, suburban environments, where similarly-structured houses with predictable lattice alignments are hotspots for repeated criminal activity. These models suggest that residential burglars prefer revisiting previously-burgled houses, or those with similar architecture, because they are already familiar with layout, security features, and availability of goods.
A new approach has been presented based on a nonlinear model of urban burglary dynamics that accounts for the deterring effect of police presence. The new model emphasizes timing of criminal activity rather than spatial spreading and location.